California has been one of the nation’s most heavily polled states in this election cycle. In the final two weeks of the campaign, at least eight different non-partisan public polling organizations have surveyed the state – some more than once – along with uncounted numbers of polls commissioned by candidates, parties and interest groups.
The non-partisan public polls all have shown Democrats Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer leading in the races for governor and U.S. Senate, respectively. In the race for governor, the surveys have put Brown’s lead over Whitman at between six and 13 points among likely voters. In the Senate race, the various surveys have pegged Boxer’s lead over Fiorina at between two points and nine points.
But what if all the polls this year are wrong?
Normally, that doesn’t happen. For all the skepticism that some voters have about polls – and the oft-expressed view by candidates that “the only poll that counts is the one on election day” – polling in the United States has a very good track record for accuracy. That’s particularly the case when numerous polling organizations using different methodologies all come up with results that point in the same direction. Add to that the fact that “election day” in California started weeks ago, with about half the likely voters expected to cast their ballots by mail before Tuesday, meaning that late come-from-behind surges by any candidate are more difficult than they once were. But some Republican analysts have argued that this year is different. Polls are underestimating the number of Republican “surge” voters – people who don’t vote in every election but will vote this year – and overestimating the number of Democrats, they say. Read more here.