The global economic recession and an increase in violent conflict and political instability around the planet have taken a toll on world peacefulness in 2008, according to the 2009 Global Peace Index (GPI) released today in events in Washington and London, including an event at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The results of the 2009 GPI show that as the global economy headed into recession in 2008, many of the indicators used by the GPI to measure peace, such as the likelihood of violent demonstrations and political instability, increased, while others — such as respect for human rights — decreased. Iceland presented one of several examples of the links between the global economic crisis and a decline in peacefulness. The country, which topped the 2008 GPI, fell to fourth place this year after its economy collapsed.
Now in its third year, the GPI is the world’s only index to rank countries according to their relative states of peace. It has been endorsed by a number of prominent individuals, including Nobel Peace Laureates, royalty, dignitaries and members of the business community.
The Index defines peace as “the absence of violence,” and looks at 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators of external and internal measures of peacefulness. Internally, these include homicides, percentage of the population in jail, availability of guns, and level of organized crime. External indicators include the size of the military, exports and imports of arms, battlefield deaths, UN peacekeeping contributions, and relations with neighboring states.
“Peace is a concrete aim that can be measured and valued, not just in social terms but in economic terms,” said Clyde McConaghy, president of the GPI from the Institute for Economics and Peace, a new think tank that produces the Index. The Institute aims to help the private sector, academic community, civil society, international institutions and governments gain a better understanding of how peace and economics are linked, and how to proactively use peace to achieve their respective goals.
“There is a clear correlation between the economic crisis and the decline in peace. This confirms that there is a real-world economic value for peace. It creates an environment where it is easier for workers to produce, business to sell, entrepreneurs and scientists to innovate and governments to regulate, and that in turn creates wealth,” he added.
“Because they can work better with others, peaceful countries can constructively work together on solving some of our most pressing economic, social and environmental problems. Indeed, peace is the prerequisite to helping solve today’s major challenges, such as food and water scarcity, decreasing biodiversity or climate change.”
Mr. McConaghy pointed to the results of a groundbreaking study, released alongside the 2009 GPI, which estimates the economic impact of lost peace on the global economy at US$7.2 trillion per year. US$4.8 trillion would be value added from business activities that never see the light of day due to violence. A further US$2.4 trillion relates to the redeployment of resources and expenditure away from industries benefiting from violence to those that benefit from peace.
“The reality is that the net economic benefit of peace to humanity is substantial, and governments and businesses should seriously consider how adopting practices and policies that promote peace helps their bottom line. It is this kind of thinking that the Institute for Economics and Peace will promote,” he added.
The United States jumped six spots this year to 83rd place. Speaking to the change in the United States’ ranking, Leo Abruzzese, director of country and economic research, North America at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), which calculates the GPI data on behalf of the Institute for Economics and Peace, said:
“The six-point jump is partially because of an improvement in the indicator for potential terrorist acts in the United States and the general decrease in other countries’ rankings relative to the United States. But although the United States saw an increase in ranking despite the economic crisis, some factors — such as the ease of access to weapons, a large prison population and ongoing combat deaths — prevented it from ranking higher this year.”
New Zealand ranked as the world’s most peaceful country, followed by Denmark and Norway. Rounding out the top five were Iceland in fourth place and Austria in fifth. Overall, the GPI revealed that small, stable and democratic countries ranked highest; 14 of the top 20 countries are western or central European democracies.
Iraq was again the world’s least peaceful country in 2008, remaining in 144th place. Afghanistan, Somalia, Israel and Sudan were the next least peaceful, ranking 143rd-140th respectively. Bosnia and Herzegovina was the biggest riser, up 23 places to 50th position this year, while Madagascar saw the biggest fall in ranking (30 places) amid mounting political instability and violent demonstrations.